India’s Modi Problem Is Bigger Than Modi: A System on the Brink

India's crisis isn't just Modi—it's the BJP's entrenched system of cronyism, military politicization, and RSS ideology.

Let’s talk about India—not the India of glossy tourism ads or Silicon Valley dreams, but the India of 2025, teetering on a knife-edge. The narrative peddled by the BJP’s spin machine is that Narendra Modi is India’s unshakeable colossus, a leader who’s welded himself to the nation’s destiny. But here’s the inconvenient truth: Modi isn’t the problem. He’s a symptom. The real issue is the BJP system—a sprawling, insidious machine that’s burrowed deep into India’s business elite, military brass, and state institutions. This isn’t just a man; it’s a structure. And it’s brittle.

Don’t get me wrong—Modi’s charisma, or whatever’s left of it, still holds sway over millions. But the cracks are showing, and they’re not just in his approval ratings. The system he’s built, or rather, the one that’s propped him up, is starting to wobble. It’s a house of cards resting on economic oligarchs like Gautam Adani and Mukesh Ambani, whose empires are so entwined with Modi’s political survival that their fortunes might as well be listed on the BJP’s balance sheet. These aren’t just businessmen; they’re pressure points. If Adani’s ports or Ambani’s telecoms take a hit—say, from global trade wars or domestic unrest—the ripple effects could bring the whole edifice crashing down. And don’t kid yourself: India’s economy isn’t as bulletproof as the BJP wants you to believe. When the oligarchs sneeze, the nation catches a cold.

Then there’s the military. Once a bastion of apolitical professionalism, the Indian armed forces are now tainted by the BJP’s fingerprints. The Air Force Chief’s recent defense of Modi’s geopolitical decisions wasn’t just a loyalty pledge—it was a public admission that the military is being dragged into the political muck. This isn’t about strategy; it’s about optics. And it’s costing India dearly. The international community, especially rivals like China, smells weakness when generals play cheerleader for politicians. The Indian Air Force’s prestige, once a point of pride, is eroding—not because of its pilots or planes, but because of the BJP’s need to control the narrative.

Now, let’s get to the heart of it: the RSS and the Hindutva faithful. These are the true believers, the ideological engine of the BJP machine. But even they’re restless. Whispers in Nagpur’s saffron circles paint Modi as a disappointment—a leader who’s failed to deliver the muscular Hindu supremacy they’ve been dreaming of since Golwalkar’s days. They wanted a Ram Rajya; instead, they got a prime minister who’s looking increasingly mortal. Subramanian Swamy, never one to mince words, has gone full kamikaze, calling Modi a “pathetic leader” and a “chicken” who’s buckled under pressure from China. That’s not just dissent; it’s a signal that the elites are smelling blood. Swamy’s not alone—others in the BJP’s intellectual orbit are starting to question whether Modi’s still the man to carry the torch.

Enter Yogi Adityanath, the monk-turned-politician who’s playing the long game. Yogi’s silence isn’t loyalty; it’s strategy. He’s not breaking Modi—he’s waiting for the wreckage. If the BJP’s system starts to crumble, Yogi’s poised to inherit the throne, saffron robes and all. He’s the RSS’s dream: unapologetic, uncompromising, and unafraid to double down on the hardline Hindutva that Modi’s been accused of soft-pedaling.

But here’s where it gets interesting: the opposition. Rahul Gandhi, long dismissed as a dynastic lightweight, is quietly positioning himself as the anti-BJP. He’s not just preaching to the Congress choir; he’s pitching a reset to Washington—think more Quad, less ambiguity on China. Centrist and centre-right elites, fed up with the BJP’s economic cronyism and ideological rigidity, are starting to listen. Gandhi’s not a savior, but he’s a pragmatist, and in a country where the BJP’s alienated its own moderates, that’s a start.

So, where does India go from here? The paths are stark, and none are pretty. Option one: Modi doubles down on ultranationalism—more “Made in India” chest-thumping, more media attacks on the U.S., more saber-rattling to rally the base. It might keep the BJP in power, but it’s a death spiral. It alienates the centrists, spooks investors, and locks India into a governance model that’s as brittle as it is bombastic. Option two: the RSS goes full radical, embracing isolationism and doubling down on Hindu dominance. Think Yogi in charge, with a side of economic patronage and social division. India becomes a fortress—defiant, but alone. Option three: the RSS plays opportunist, cozying up to the U.S. to counter China. Swamy’s rhetoric suggests some hardliners see this as a lifeline, but it means swallowing pride and making concessions Trump’s America will happily exploit. Option four: a Congress-led reset under Gandhi, reorienting India toward pragmatic alliances and economic reform. It’s a long shot, but if the BJP’s system cracks—say, if Adani or Ambani’s empires wobble—it’s not impossible.

Here’s the kicker: India’s not just drifting—it’s stuck. It’s resisting America’s orbit while failing to counter China’s regional dominance. This “autonomy” is a mirage. It’s the posture of a nation too proud to choose a side but too weak to stand alone. The BJP’s system—built on cronyism, control, and charisma—might hold for now, but it’s fragile. One wrong move, one economic shock, one elite defection, and the whole thing could unravel. And when it does, the question isn’t whether Modi survives—it’s whether India can escape the trap he’s built.